You check the Bank of Canada’s website, see a 5-year benchmark bond yield of 3.65%, and then glance at your brokerage’s GIC page. The 5-year GIC is listed at 4.10%. But when you look at the actual interest payment hitting…
Category: Blog
When a U.S. importer signs a purchase order for electronics from Japan or wine from Italy, the final shelf price isn’t set the day the container leaves port. It’s set months later, after a chain of financial decisions that starts…
On June 30, 2023, the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP) facility had a staggering $2.054 trillion parked overnight. By September 30, 2024, that number had collapsed to $239 billion. That’s a drainage of over $1.8 trillion in 15…
On a Wednesday in June 2023, the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP) facility held $1.992 trillion. By the first week of November 2024, that number had cratered to roughly $155 billion—a 92% drop in 17 months. If you…
You won’t see a municipal bond downgrade on the evening news. It lands quietly—a line in a ratings advisory, a footnote in a quarterly portfolio report. But the effects don’t stay quiet. They move through the pipes, and eventually, they…
When a city’s credit rating slips, the first place you feel it isn’t a brokerage statement. It’s the line item on your quarterly utility invoice labeled “water infrastructure charge” or “sewer system renewal fee.” Municipal bond downgrades—revisions to the creditworthiness…
Last October, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices showed a net 8.2% of large banks reporting they had tightened credit standards on credit card loans over the prior three months. By January and February,…
The yield curve un-inverted. It’s a wonky phrase that makes most people’s eyes glaze over, but if you’re sitting on a car loan from 2022 or 2023, it’s worth paying attention. The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields—the market’s…
The yield curve—the gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury note—has been upside down since July 2022. That’s the longest stretch of inversion in U.S. history. Now, in late 2024, it’s flipping back. The 10-year yield has climbed above the…
Last March, I was tracking the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index default rate when a cluster of CLO resets hit their test dates simultaneously. By September, three mid-cap companies in those CLO pools announced workforce reductions totaling 4,200 jobs. The resets…
When a bank sets aside money for credit card loans it thinks will sour, it’s not guessing. It’s reading a set of early-warning signals most people never see—delinquency roll rates, payment velocity, utilization thresholds, and macroeconomic overlays. These numbers land…
When a bank drops its quarterly earnings, everyone races to the headline numbers—revenue, net income, earnings per share. But if you’re trying to figure out where consumer credit is actually headed, you need to dig a little deeper. Tucked into…